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Sloboda Uzice vs RSK Rabrovo — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
3 – 0
RSK Rabrovo
RSK Rabrovo
6/4/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 30Stadion Radomir Antić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sloboda Uzice63%
×Draw23%
RSK Rabrovo15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
1.78
RSK Rabrovo
0.72

Sloboda Uzice creates 147% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.31
RSK Rabrovo
0.82

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
0.63
RSK Rabrovo
2.24

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

RSK Rabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
85%
Sloboda Uzice or RSK Rabrovo
77%
Draw or RSK Rabrovo
37%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
36%
RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
83%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
53%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
26%
RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals
51%
RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals
16%
RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
81%
RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

RSK Rabrovo away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.31 + RSK Rabrovo defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.78

RSK Rabrovo attack 0.82 + Sloboda Uzice defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
63%
level
23%
RSK Rabrovo scores more
15%

Sloboda Uzice at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sloboda Uzice 3–0 RSK Rabrovo

Sloboda Uzice beat RSK Rabrovo 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Radomir Antić in Užice.