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RSK Rabrovo vs Sloboda Uzice — Srpska Liga - West 2025

RSK Rabrovo
RSK Rabrovo
FT
1 – 1
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
11/21/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 15Stadion RSK Rabrovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

RSK Rabrovo30%
×Draw27%
Sloboda Uzice43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RSK Rabrovo
1.06
Sloboda Uzice
1.34

Sloboda Uzice creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

creates per match

RSK Rabrovo
1.25
Sloboda Uzice
0.93

allows per match

RSK Rabrovo
1.75
Sloboda Uzice
0.87

finishing

RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RSK Rabrovo ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RSK Rabrovo or draw
57%
RSK Rabrovo or Sloboda Uzice
73%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
70%

Winning margin

RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+
11%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals
65%
RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals
29%
RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals
9%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
74%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
39%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)
41%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RSK Rabrovo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RSK Rabrovo attack 1.25 + Sloboda Uzice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.93 + RSK Rabrovo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RSK Rabrovo scores more
30%
level
27%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
43%

Sloboda Uzice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RSK Rabrovo vs Sloboda Uzice

RSK Rabrovo and Sloboda Uzice drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion RSK Rabrovo in Rabrovo.