Sloboda Uzice 1–1 OFK Vršac: Result & Stats

Sloboda Uzice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

OFK Vršac

9/16/2023

Prva Liga · Round 7Stadion Radomir Antić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sloboda Uzice41%

×Draw29%

OFK Vršac29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda UziceExpected goals in this matchOFK Vršac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.95

Sloboda Uzice

1.19

OFK Vršac

0.95

Sloboda Uzice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 73 away

1.04

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice

1.04

OFK Vršac

0.89

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice

1.00

OFK Vršac

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

OFK Vršac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw

71%

Sloboda Uzice or OFK Vršac

71%

Draw or OFK Vršac

59%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+

18%

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals

70%

Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals

33%

Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals

12%

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

61%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

25%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)

59%

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.04 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more

41%

level

29%

OFK Vršac scores more

29%

Sloboda Uzice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff