OFK Vršac 2–0 Sloboda Uzice: Result & Stats

OFK Vršac

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sloboda Uzice

3/2/2024

Prva Liga · Round 22Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

OFK Vršac53%

×Draw29%

Sloboda Uzice19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK VršacExpected goals in this matchSloboda Uzice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.65

OFK Vršac

1.31

Sloboda Uzice

0.65

OFK Vršac creates 102% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 76 away

1.04

creates per match

0.62

0.68

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

OFK Vršac

1.04

Sloboda Uzice

0.62

allows per match

OFK Vršac

0.68

Sloboda Uzice

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Sloboda Uzice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw

81%

OFK Vršac or Sloboda Uzice

71%

Draw or Sloboda Uzice

47%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

25%

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

73%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

38%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

14%

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals

48%

Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals

14%

Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

74%

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

OFK Vršac scores more

53%

level

29%

Sloboda Uzice scores more

19%

OFK Vršac at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff