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Sloboda Uzice vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
9/23/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 10Stadion Radomir Antić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sloboda Uzice40%
×Draw29%
Jedinstvo Ub31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Uzice
1.20
Jedinstvo Ub
1.02

Sloboda Uzice creates 18% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.04
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.35

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw
69%
Sloboda Uzice or Jedinstvo Ub
71%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
60%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
17%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
70%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
34%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
12%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
64%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
27%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
56%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.04 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more
40%
level
29%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
31%

Sloboda Uzice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Sloboda Uzice 0–0 Jedinstvo Ub

Sloboda Uzice and Jedinstvo Ub drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Radomir Antić in Užice.