Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jedinstvo Ub vs Sloboda Uzice — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sloboda Uzice
Sloboda Uzice
3/23/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 25Stadion Dragan Dzajic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub55%
×Draw25%
Sloboda Uzice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
Sloboda Uzice
0.82

Jedinstvo Ub creates 90% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 76 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
Sloboda Uzice
0.62

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
Sloboda Uzice
1.57

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Sloboda Uzice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
80%
Jedinstvo Ub or Sloboda Uzice
75%
Draw or Sloboda Uzice
45%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
29%
Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
79%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
46%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
21%
Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals
56%
Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals
20%
Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
74%
Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Sloboda Uzice away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.57 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sloboda Uzice attack 0.62 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
55%
level
25%
Sloboda Uzice scores more
20%

Jedinstvo Ub at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs Sloboda Uzice

Jedinstvo Ub and Sloboda Uzice drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on March 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajic in Ub.