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Sloboda Tuzla vs Krupa na Vrbasu — Premijer Liga 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
I. Baraban 34'
S. Milanovic 59'
M. Brtan 8'
5/11/2019Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 31Stadion Tušanj (Tuzla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla46%
×Draw27%
Krupa na Vrbasu27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.36
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.98

Sloboda Tuzla creates 39% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.14
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.73

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.24
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.59

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
73%
Sloboda Tuzla or Krupa na Vrbasu
73%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
54%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
21%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
74%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
39%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
16%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
62%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
26%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
63%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 80 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.14 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 0.73 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
46%
level
27%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
27%

Sloboda Tuzla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Brtan
34'
I. Baraban
59'
S. Milanovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Sloboda Tuzla 1–2 Krupa na Vrbasu

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Sloboda Tuzla 2-1 in Premijer Liga on May 11, 2019.

Goals: M. Brtan (8'), I. Baraban (34'), S. Milanovic (59').

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj (Tuzla).