Krupa na Vrbasu 0–1 Sloboda Tuzla: Result & Stats

Krupa na Vrbasu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sloboda Tuzla

11/3/2018

Premijer Liga · Round 16Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu (Krupa na Vrbasu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu53%

×Draw27%

Sloboda Tuzla20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krupa na VrbasuExpected goals in this matchSloboda Tuzla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.76

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.43

Sloboda Tuzla

0.76

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 88% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 83 away

1.20

creates per match

0.58

0.95

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.20

Sloboda Tuzla

0.58

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.95

Sloboda Tuzla

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw

80%

Krupa na Vrbasu or Sloboda Tuzla

73%

Draw or Sloboda Tuzla

47%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

27%

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

76%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

42%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

17%

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

53%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

18%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

73%

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.20 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sloboda Tuzla attack 0.58 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

53%

level

27%

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

20%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff