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Sloboda Tuzla vs Jedinstvo Bihać — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
4 – 0
Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
8/19/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla66%
×Draw21%
Jedinstvo Bihać13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.92
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.70

Sloboda Tuzla creates 174% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.86
Jedinstvo Bihać
0.69

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
0.71
Jedinstvo Bihać
1.97

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Jedinstvo Bihać →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
87%
Sloboda Tuzla or Jedinstvo Bihać
79%
Draw or Jedinstvo Bihać
34%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
40%
Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
85%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
57%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
30%
Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
50%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
16%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
84%
Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Jedinstvo Bihać away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.97 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 0.69 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
66%
level
21%
Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
13%

Sloboda Tuzla at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Tuzla vs Jedinstvo Bihać

Sloboda Tuzla beat Jedinstvo Bihać 4-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.