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Jedinstvo Bihać vs Sloboda Tuzla — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Jedinstvo Bihać
Jedinstvo Bihać
FT
1 – 2
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
3/17/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Stadion Pod Borićima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jedinstvo Bihać40%
×Draw28%
Sloboda Tuzla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.24
Sloboda Tuzla
1.06

Jedinstvo Bihać creates 17% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.52
Sloboda Tuzla
1.07

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bihać
1.05
Sloboda Tuzla
0.96

finishing

Jedinstvo Bihać+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bihać ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bihać or draw
69%
Jedinstvo Bihać or Sloboda Tuzla
72%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
60%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bihać wins by 2+
18%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bihać 1+ goals
71%
Jedinstvo Bihać 2+ goals
35%
Jedinstvo Bihać 3+ goals
13%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
65%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
29%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bihać (draw refunded)
56%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bihać at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bihać attack 1.52 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Jedinstvo Bihać defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jedinstvo Bihać scores more
40%
level
28%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
31%

Jedinstvo Bihać at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bihać will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Bihać vs Sloboda Tuzla

Sloboda Tuzla beat Jedinstvo Bihać 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Borićima in Bihać.