Sloboda Tuzla 3–2 Igman Konjic: Result & Stats

Sloboda Tuzla

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Igman Konjic

S. Husejinovic 63', 7'

E. Smajic 17'

K. Tatar 75'

E. Alajmovic 20' (OG)

10/5/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla56%

×Draw25%

Igman Konjic19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda TuzlaExpected goals in this matchIgman Konjic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.84

Sloboda Tuzla

1.63

Igman Konjic

0.84

Sloboda Tuzla creates 94% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 54 away

1.86

creates per match

0.98

0.71

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla

1.86

Igman Konjic

0.98

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla

0.71

Igman Konjic

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Igman Konjic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw

81%

Sloboda Tuzla or Igman Konjic

75%

Draw or Igman Konjic

44%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

30%

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

80%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

48%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

22%

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

57%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

21%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

74%

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Igman Konjic defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Igman Konjic attack 0.98 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

56%

level

25%

Igman Konjic scores more

19%

Sloboda Tuzla at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

S. Husejinovic

17'

E. Smajic

20'

E. AlajmovicOwn goal

63'

S. Husejinovic

75'

K. Tatar

Sloboda

Igman

Manager: I. Janković

Manager: A. Peternac