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Igman Konjic vs Sloboda Tuzla — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Igman Konjic
Igman Konjic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
A. Alagic 45'
4/25/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Igman Konjic44%
×Draw29%
Sloboda Tuzla27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Igman Konjic
1.25
Sloboda Tuzla
0.92

Igman Konjic creates 36% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 28 away

creates per match

Igman Konjic
1.55
Sloboda Tuzla
1.07

allows per match

Igman Konjic
0.77
Sloboda Tuzla
0.96

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw
73%
Igman Konjic or Sloboda Tuzla
71%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
56%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+
20%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals
71%
Igman Konjic 2+ goals
36%
Igman Konjic 3+ goals
13%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
60%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
23%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)
62%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.55 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Igman Konjic defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Igman Konjic scores more
44%
level
29%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
27%

Igman Konjic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Alagic
Igman
Sloboda
A. Peternac
Manager: A. Peternac
I. Janković
Manager: I. Janković

Match Recap: Igman Konjic vs Sloboda Tuzla

Igman Konjic beat Sloboda Tuzla 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 25, 2026.

Goals: A. Alagic (45').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Konjic.