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Sloboda Tuzla vs Čelik — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Čelik
Čelik
E. Huseinbasic 18'
A. Masic 77'
9/6/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla52%
×Draw26%
Čelik22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.55
Čelik
0.92

Sloboda Tuzla creates 68% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.86
Čelik
1.14

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
0.71
Čelik
1.24

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Čelik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
78%
Sloboda Tuzla or Čelik
74%
Draw or Čelik
48%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
27%
Čelik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
79%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
46%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
20%
Čelik 1+ goals
60%
Čelik 2+ goals
23%
Čelik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
70%
Čelik (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.55

Čelik attack 1.14 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
52%
level
26%
Čelik scores more
22%

Sloboda Tuzla at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
E. Huseinbasic
77'
A. Masic
Sloboda
Čelik
I. Janković
Manager: I. Janković
N. Hukić
Manager: N. Hukić

1st League - FBiH: Sloboda Tuzla 1–1 Čelik

Sloboda Tuzla and Čelik drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 6, 2025.

Goals: E. Huseinbasic (18'), A. Masic (77').

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.