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Čelik vs Sloboda Tuzla — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čelik
Čelik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
A. Meduseljac 90+3'
10/21/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Čelik52%
×Draw26%
Sloboda Tuzla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čelik
1.48
Sloboda Tuzla
0.84

Čelik creates 76% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 28 away

creates per match

Čelik
2.00
Sloboda Tuzla
1.07

allows per match

Čelik
0.62
Sloboda Tuzla
0.96

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Čelik or draw
79%
Čelik or Sloboda Tuzla
74%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
48%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+
27%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals
77%
Čelik 2+ goals
43%
Čelik 3+ goals
19%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
57%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
21%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)
71%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Čelik scores more
52%
level
26%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
21%

Čelik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+3'
A. Meduseljac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Čelik 1–0 Sloboda Tuzla

Čelik beat Sloboda Tuzla 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on October 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Meduseljac (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.