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Sloboda Tuzla vs Budućnost Banovići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
3 – 1
Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
3/24/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla59%
×Draw23%
Budućnost Banovići18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.79
Budućnost Banovići
0.89

Sloboda Tuzla creates 101% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.86
Budućnost Banovići
1.07

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
0.71
Budućnost Banovići
1.72

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Budućnost Banovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
82%
Sloboda Tuzla or Budućnost Banovići
77%
Draw or Budućnost Banovići
41%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
33%
Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
83%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
53%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
26%
Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
59%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
22%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
76%
Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
59%
level
23%
Budućnost Banovići scores more
18%

Sloboda Tuzla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Sloboda Tuzla 3–1 Budućnost Banovići

Sloboda Tuzla beat Budućnost Banovići 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.