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Budućnost Banovići vs Sloboda Tuzla — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Budućnost Banovići
Budućnost Banovići
FT
0 – 1
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
8/26/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Budućnost Banovići44%
×Draw28%
Sloboda Tuzla28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Banovići
1.32
Sloboda Tuzla
1.00

Budućnost Banovići creates 32% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 28 away

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići
1.68
Sloboda Tuzla
1.07

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići
0.92
Sloboda Tuzla
0.96

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw
72%
Budućnost Banovići or Sloboda Tuzla
72%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
56%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+
20%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals
73%
Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals
38%
Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals
15%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
63%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
26%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)
61%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more
44%
level
28%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
28%

Budućnost Banovići at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Budućnost Banovići 0–1 Sloboda Tuzla

Sloboda Tuzla beat Budućnost Banovići 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Banovići.