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Sloboda Tuzla vs Bratstvo Gračanica — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
5/26/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 28Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla57%
×Draw25%
Bratstvo Gračanica19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.64
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.82

Sloboda Tuzla creates 100% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.86
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.94

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
0.71
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.41

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
81%
Sloboda Tuzla or Bratstvo Gračanica
75%
Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica
43%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
31%
Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
81%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
49%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
23%
Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
56%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
20%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
75%
Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.94 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
57%
level
25%
Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
19%

Sloboda Tuzla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Sloboda Tuzla 2–0 Bratstvo Gračanica

Sloboda Tuzla beat Bratstvo Gračanica 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.