Bratstvo Gračanica 2–1 Sloboda Tuzla

Bratstvo Gračanica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sloboda Tuzla

11/4/2023

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica43%

×Draw27%

Sloboda Tuzla31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bratstvo GračanicaExpected goals in this matchSloboda Tuzla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.39

Sloboda Tuzla

1.13

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 23% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 28 away

1.81

creates per match

1.07

1.18

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.81

Sloboda Tuzla

1.07

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.18

Sloboda Tuzla

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw

69%

Bratstvo Gračanica or Sloboda Tuzla

73%

Draw or Sloboda Tuzla

57%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

20%

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

75%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

40%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

16%

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals

68%

Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals

31%

Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

58%

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.81 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

43%

level

27%

Sloboda Tuzla scores more

31%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff