Sloboda Novi Kozarci vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Sloboda Novi Kozarci28%
Omladinac NB45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Omladinac NB creates 35% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 103 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches
Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05
Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Omladinac NB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Železničar Pančevo
Bačka 1901
Radnički Zrenjanin
OFK Vršac
Dinamo Pančevo
Radnički Sombor
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FK BecejOmladinac NB
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1. Maj Ruma
Borac Sakule
Vojvodina 1928
Kozara
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Dunav Stari BanovciIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sloboda Novi Kozarci host Omladinac NB on Saturday, 5 September 2020 at 14:30. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019/2020 season.
Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloboda Novi Kozarci 0–3 Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 5, 2020.
The match was played at Alko Arena in Novi Kozarci.