Omladinac NB 1–1 Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Omladinac NB

FT

1 – 1

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

3/27/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion FK Podunavac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Omladinac NB60%

×Draw22%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Omladinac NBExpected goals in this matchSloboda Novi Kozarci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.97

Omladinac NB

1.94

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

0.97

Omladinac NB creates 100% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

0.79

1.15

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Omladinac NB

1.61

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

0.79

allows per match

Omladinac NB

1.15

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw

82%

Omladinac NB or Sloboda Novi Kozarci

78%

Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci

40%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

36%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

86%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

58%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

30%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals

62%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals

25%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

76%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Omladinac NB scores more

60%

level

22%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more

18%

Omladinac NB at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff