Sloboda Novi Kozarci vs Mladost Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Sloboda Novi Kozarci20%
Mladost Novi Sad57%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mladost Novi Sad creates 88% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches
Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95
Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Mladost Novi Sad at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Železničar Pančevo
Bačka 1901
Radnički Zrenjanin
OFK Vršac
Dinamo Pančevo
Radnički Sombor
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FK Becej
Omladinac NB
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1. Maj Ruma
Borac Sakule
Vojvodina 1928
Kozara
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Dunav Stari BanovciIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sloboda Novi Kozarci host Mladost Novi Sad on Saturday, 15 May 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019/2020 season.
Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloboda Novi Kozarci 0–1 Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 15, 2021.
The match was played at Alko Arena in Novi Kozarci.