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Mladost Novi Sad vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
6 – 1
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
10/31/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad80%
×Draw13%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
2.76
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.69

Mladost Novi Sad creates 300% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
3.26
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.58
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
93%
Mladost Novi Sad or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
87%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
20%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
59%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
94%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
76%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
51%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
50%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
15%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
92%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.76

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
80%
level
13%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
7%

Mladost Novi Sad at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Mladost Novi Sad 6–1 Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Mladost Novi Sad beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 6-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad in Novi Sad.