Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2–2 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

FT

2 – 2

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

6/5/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 38Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci37%

×Draw25%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Novi KozarciExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Stara Pazova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.39

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 78 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

1.74

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.00

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.74

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw

63%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

75%

Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

63%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+

17%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals

75%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals

40%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals

16%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

75%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

40%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)

50%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more

37%

level

25%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

37%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Kozarci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff