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Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
FT
1 – 1
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
11/29/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 19Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova58%
×Draw23%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.82
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.92

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 98% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.38
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.04
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw
81%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
77%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
42%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
34%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
84%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
54%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
27%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
60%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
23%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
76%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.82

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
58%
level
23%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
19%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1–1 Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova and Sloboda Novi Kozarci drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Stara Pazova.