Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3–2 Dinamo Pančevo

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

FT

3 – 2

Dinamo Pančevo

5/1/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 32Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci34%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Pančevo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Novi KozarciExpected goals in this matchDinamo Pančevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.44

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.30

Dinamo Pančevo

1.44

Dinamo Pančevo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 102 away

1.00

creates per match

1.13

1.74

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.00

Dinamo Pančevo

1.13

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.74

Dinamo Pančevo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Dinamo Pančevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw

60%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Dinamo Pančevo

74%

Draw or Dinamo Pančevo

66%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+

15%

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals

73%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals

37%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

42%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)

46%

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Dinamo Pančevo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.13 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more

34%

level

26%

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

40%

Dinamo Pančevo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff