Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Pančevo vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
2 – 1
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
10/17/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo60%
×Draw21%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.98
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.00

Dinamo Pančevo creates 98% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
81%
Dinamo Pančevo or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
79%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
40%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
36%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
86%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
59%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
31%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
63%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
26%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
76%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
60%
level
21%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
19%

Dinamo Pančevo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 2–1 Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Dinamo Pančevo beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.