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Sloboda Novi Grad vs Krupa na Vrbasu — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloboda Novi Grad
Sloboda Novi Grad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
4/1/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 22Stadion Mlakve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sloboda Novi Grad33%
×Draw28%
Krupa na Vrbasu39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Novi Grad
1.09
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.20

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Grad
1.55
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.79

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Grad
0.60
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.64

finishing

Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Grad ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Grad or draw
61%
Sloboda Novi Grad or Krupa na Vrbasu
72%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
67%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+
13%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals
66%
Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals
30%
Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals
10%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
70%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
34%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)
46%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Grad at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.60 · 67 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.55 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.09

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sloboda Novi Grad scores more
33%
level
28%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
39%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Sloboda Novi Grad 0–0 Krupa na Vrbasu

Sloboda Novi Grad and Krupa na Vrbasu drew 0-0 in 1st League - RS on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mlakve in Bosanska Krajina.