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Krupa na Vrbasu vs Sloboda Novi Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Novi Grad
Sloboda Novi Grad
4/17/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 23Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu72%
×Draw17%
Sloboda Novi Grad11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krupa na Vrbasu
2.38
Sloboda Novi Grad
0.82

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 190% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 65 away

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
3.41
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.09

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
0.54
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.34

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Sloboda Novi Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw
89%
Krupa na Vrbasu or Sloboda Novi Grad
83%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Grad
28%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
49%
Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
91%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
68%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
42%
Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals
56%
Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals
20%
Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
86%
Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

Sloboda Novi Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 2.38

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.09 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
72%
level
17%
Sloboda Novi Grad scores more
11%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krupa na Vrbasu vs Sloboda Novi Grad

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Sloboda Novi Grad 1-0 in 1st League - RS on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu in Krupa na Vrbasu.