Sloboda Novi Grad 1–1 FK Jedinstvo Brcko

Sloboda Novi Grad

FT

1 – 1

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

10/10/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 10Stadion Mlakve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sloboda Novi Grad73%

×Draw17%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Novi GradExpected goals in this matchFK Jedinstvo Brcko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.73

Sloboda Novi Grad

2.33

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

0.73

Sloboda Novi Grad creates 219% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 21 away

1.55

creates per match

0.86

0.60

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Grad

1.55

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

0.86

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Grad

0.60

FK Jedinstvo Brcko

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Grad ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Grad or draw

90%

Sloboda Novi Grad or FK Jedinstvo Brcko

83%

Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko

27%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+

50%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals

90%

Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals

67%

Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals

41%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals

52%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals

17%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)

88%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Grad at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.60 · 67 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.55 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.33

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sloboda Novi Grad scores more

73%

level

17%

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more

10%

Sloboda Novi Grad at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff