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FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Sloboda Novi Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FT
1 – 2
Sloboda Novi Grad
Sloboda Novi Grad
4/28/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 25Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko33%
×Draw27%
Sloboda Novi Grad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.20
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.34

Sloboda Novi Grad creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 65 away

creates per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.05
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.09

allows per match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko
1.59
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.34

finishing

FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jedinstvo Brcko ↓

Sloboda Novi Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Jedinstvo Brcko or draw
60%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko or Sloboda Novi Grad
73%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Grad
67%

Winning margin

FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
14%
Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
70%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
34%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
12%
Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals
74%
Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals
39%
Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
45%
Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jedinstvo Brcko at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Sloboda Novi Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 1.05 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.09 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
33%
level
27%
Sloboda Novi Grad scores more
40%

Sloboda Novi Grad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Jedinstvo Brcko vs Sloboda Novi Grad

Sloboda Novi Grad beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2-1 in 1st League - RS on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Brčko.