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Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad vs Krupa na Vrbasu — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
8/14/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 2Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad29%
×Draw25%
Krupa na Vrbasu45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.17
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.52

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.69
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.79

allows per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.24
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.64

finishing

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or draw
55%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or Krupa na Vrbasu
75%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
71%

Winning margin

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+
12%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals
69%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals
33%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals
11%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
78%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
45%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)
39%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 1.69 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.17

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more
29%
level
25%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
45%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad vs Krupa na Vrbasu

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2-1 in 1st League - RS on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Mrkonjić Grad.