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Krupa na Vrbasu vs Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
3/18/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 19Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu79%
×Draw14%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krupa na Vrbasu
2.71
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.71

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 282% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 51 away

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
3.41
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
0.88

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
0.54
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
2.02

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw
93%
Krupa na Vrbasu or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
86%
Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
21%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
58%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
93%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
75%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
50%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals
51%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals
16%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
91%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.71

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
79%
level
14%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more
7%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Krupa na Vrbasu 5–1 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 5-1 in 1st League - RS on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu in Krupa na Vrbasu.