Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 6–0 Drina Zvornik

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Drina Zvornik

11/4/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 14Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad56%

×Draw23%

Drina Zvornik21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Mrkonjić GradExpected goals in this matchDrina Zvornik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.97

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.76

Drina Zvornik

0.97

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad creates 81% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 96 away

1.69

creates per match

0.71

1.24

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.69

Drina Zvornik

0.71

allows per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.24

Drina Zvornik

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad ↓

Drina Zvornik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or draw

79%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or Drina Zvornik

77%

Draw or Drina Zvornik

44%

Winning margin

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

31%

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

83%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

52%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

26%

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

62%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

25%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

73%

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 1.69 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.76

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

56%

level

23%

Drina Zvornik scores more

21%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff