Drina Zvornik 2–1 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Drina Zvornik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

4/9/2025

1st League - RS · RS - 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Drina Zvornik65%

×Draw21%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Drina ZvornikExpected goals in this matchSloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.80

Drina Zvornik

1.98

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.80

Drina Zvornik creates 147% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 51 away

1.93

creates per match

0.88

0.73

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Drina Zvornik

1.93

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.88

allows per match

Drina Zvornik

0.73

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drina Zvornik ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Drina Zvornik or draw

86%

Drina Zvornik or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

79%

Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

35%

Winning margin

Drina Zvornik wins by 2+

40%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Drina Zvornik 1+ goals

86%

Drina Zvornik 2+ goals

59%

Drina Zvornik 3+ goals

31%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

55%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

19%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)

82%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drina Zvornik at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.73 · 95 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drina Zvornik attack 1.93 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Drina Zvornik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Drina Zvornik scores more

65%

level

21%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

14%

Drina Zvornik at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Drina Zvornik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Drina Zvornik 2–1 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Drina Zvornik beat Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2-1 in 1st League - RS on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Zvornik.

Drina Zvornik vs Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

1st League - RS: Drina Zvornik 2–1 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad