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Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad vs BSK Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
FT
0 – 1
BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
3/16/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 20Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad45%
×Draw25%
BSK Banja Luka30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.59
BSK Banja Luka
1.25

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.69
BSK Banja Luka
1.27

allows per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.24
BSK Banja Luka
1.50

finishing

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par
BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad ↓

BSK Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or draw
70%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or BSK Banja Luka
75%
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
55%

Winning margin

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+
23%
BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals
80%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals
47%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals
21%
BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
71%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
36%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)
60%
BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 1.69 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more
45%
level
25%
BSK Banja Luka scores more
30%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad vs BSK Banja Luka

BSK Banja Luka beat Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1-0 in 1st League - RS on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Mrkonjić Grad.