BSK Banja Luka 2–0 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

BSK Banja Luka

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

11/13/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 8Pomocni Teren Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

BSK Banja Luka66%

×Draw20%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSK Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchSloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.85

BSK Banja Luka

2.08

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.85

BSK Banja Luka creates 145% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 51 away

2.14

creates per match

0.88

0.82

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

BSK Banja Luka

2.14

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.88

allows per match

BSK Banja Luka

0.82

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Banja Luka ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

BSK Banja Luka or draw

86%

BSK Banja Luka or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

80%

Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

34%

Winning margin

BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+

41%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals

87%

BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals

61%

BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals

34%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

57%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

21%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)

82%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Banja Luka at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.82 · 49 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Banja Luka attack 2.14 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.08

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + BSK Banja Luka defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

BSK Banja Luka scores more

66%

level

20%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

14%

BSK Banja Luka at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "BSK Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff