Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slivnishki geroy vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
9/7/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 8Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Slivnishki geroy51%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Sofia II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
1.72
Septemvri Sofia II
1.14

Slivnishki geroy creates 51% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 88 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
75%
Slivnishki geroy or Septemvri Sofia II
76%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
49%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
28%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
82%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
51%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
25%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
68%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
32%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
67%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
51%
level
24%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
25%

Slivnishki geroy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slivnishki geroy 1–1 Septemvri Sofia II

Slivnishki geroy and Septemvri Sofia II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.