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Septemvri Sofia II vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
FT
1 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
4/2/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 27Stadion 57-mo uchilishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Septemvri Sofia II49%
×Draw25%
Slivnishki geroy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia II
1.58
Slivnishki geroy
1.06

Septemvri Sofia II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 130 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.70
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia II
1.09
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia II ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia II or draw
75%
Septemvri Sofia II or Slivnishki geroy
75%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
51%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
26%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
79%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
47%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
21%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
65%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
29%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
66%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 90 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.70 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Septemvri Sofia II scores more
49%
level
25%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
25%

Septemvri Sofia II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Septemvri Sofia II 1–0 Slivnishki geroy

Septemvri Sofia II beat Slivnishki geroy 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion 57-mo uchilishte in Sofia.