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Slivnishki geroy vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
0 – 1
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
3/15/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Slivnishki geroy49%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Simitli25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
1.54
Septemvri Simitli
1.02

Slivnishki geroy creates 51% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 94 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
75%
Slivnishki geroy or Septemvri Simitli
74%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
51%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
25%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
79%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
45%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
20%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
64%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
27%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
66%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
49%
level
26%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
25%

Slivnishki geroy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slivnishki geroy vs Septemvri Simitli

Septemvri Simitli beat Slivnishki geroy 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.