Septemvri Simitli 1–1 Slivnishki geroy

Septemvri Simitli

FT

1 – 1

Slivnishki geroy

2/24/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 21Stadion Struma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Septemvri Simitli50%

×Draw26%

Slivnishki geroy24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Septemvri SimitliExpected goals in this matchSlivnishki geroy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.95

Septemvri Simitli

1.50

Slivnishki geroy

0.95

Septemvri Simitli creates 58% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 130 away

1.55

creates per match

1.02

0.88

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Septemvri Simitli

1.55

Slivnishki geroy

1.02

allows per match

Septemvri Simitli

0.88

Slivnishki geroy

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Simitli ↓

Slivnishki geroy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Septemvri Simitli or draw

76%

Septemvri Simitli or Slivnishki geroy

74%

Draw or Slivnishki geroy

50%

Winning margin

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

25%

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

78%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

44%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

19%

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals

61%

Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals

25%

Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

68%

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Simitli at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 93 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Simitli attack 1.55 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Septemvri Simitli defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Septemvri Simitli scores more

50%

level

26%

Slivnishki geroy scores more

24%

Septemvri Simitli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Septemvri Simitli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff