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Slivnishki geroy vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
10/15/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 12Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Slivnishki geroy51%
×Draw24%
Rilski Sportist25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
1.67
Rilski Sportist
1.08

Slivnishki geroy creates 55% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
75%
Slivnishki geroy or Rilski Sportist
76%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
49%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
27%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
81%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
50%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
23%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
66%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
29%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
67%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
51%
level
24%
Rilski Sportist scores more
25%

Slivnishki geroy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slivnishki geroy vs Rilski Sportist

Rilski Sportist beat Slivnishki geroy 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 15, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.