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Rilski Sportist vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
1 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
9/28/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 11Stadion Vassil Levski Dolna Banya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Rilski Sportist50%
×Draw25%
Slivnishki geroy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.59
Slivnishki geroy
1.06

Rilski Sportist creates 50% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 130 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
75%
Rilski Sportist or Slivnishki geroy
75%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
50%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
26%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
80%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
47%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
21%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
65%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
29%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
66%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
50%
level
25%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
25%

Rilski Sportist at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rilski Sportist vs Slivnishki geroy

Rilski Sportist beat Slivnishki geroy 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vassil Levski Dolna Banya in Dolna Banya.