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Slivnishki geroy vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
1 – 1
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
8/31/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slivnishki geroy60%
×Draw23%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
1.82
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.85

Slivnishki geroy creates 114% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 37 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
83%
Slivnishki geroy or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
77%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
40%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
35%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
84%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
54%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
27%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
57%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
21%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
78%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.82

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
60%
level
23%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
17%

Slivnishki geroy at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slivnishki geroy 1 – 1 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Slivnishki geroy and Pirin Blagoevgrad II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.