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Pirin Blagoevgrad II vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
FT
1 – 5
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
11/20/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 18Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II31%
×Draw26%
Slivnishki geroy44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.18
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

Slivnishki geroy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 130 away

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.89
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II
1.89
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw
56%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Slivnishki geroy
74%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
69%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
12%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
69%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
33%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
12%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
77%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
43%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
41%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
31%
level
26%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
44%

Slivnishki geroy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1–5 Slivnishki geroy

Slivnishki geroy beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 5-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rila in Rila.