Slivnishki geroy 0–1 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Slivnishki geroy

FT

0 – 1

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

11/21/2020

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Slivnishki geroy58%

×Draw22%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slivnishki geroyExpected goals in this matchNadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.09

Slivnishki geroy

1.99

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.09

Slivnishki geroy creates 83% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 78 away

1.60

creates per match

1.09

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy

1.60

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.09

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy

1.09

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw

80%

Slivnishki geroy or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

78%

Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

42%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+

35%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals

86%

Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals

59%

Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals

32%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

66%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

30%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)

74%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.99

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more

58%

level

22%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

20%

Slivnishki geroy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff