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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
CANC
15:00
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
5/30/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi42%
×Draw26%
Slivnishki geroy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.41
Slivnishki geroy
1.17

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 21% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 130 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
69%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Slivnishki geroy
74%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
58%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
20%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
76%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
41%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
17%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
69%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
33%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
58%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
42%
level
26%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
31%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Slivnishki geroy — Match Preview

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi face Slivnishki geroy on May 30, 2020 in this Third League - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.