Slivnishki geroy 0–0 FK Minyor Pernik

Slivnishki geroy

FT

0 – 0

FK Minyor Pernik

10/12/2019

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slivnishki geroy36%

×Draw27%

FK Minyor Pernik38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slivnishki geroyExpected goals in this matchFK Minyor Pernik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Slivnishki geroy

1.25

FK Minyor Pernik

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 45 away

1.60

creates per match

1.49

1.09

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy

1.60

FK Minyor Pernik

1.49

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy

1.09

FK Minyor Pernik

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw

62%

Slivnishki geroy or FK Minyor Pernik

73%

Draw or FK Minyor Pernik

64%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+

15%

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals

71%

Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals

36%

Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals

13%

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals

72%

FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals

37%

FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)

49%

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more

36%

level

27%

FK Minyor Pernik scores more

38%

FK Minyor Pernik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff