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FK Minyor Pernik vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
8/5/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 1Stadion Minyor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik60%
×Draw22%
Slivnishki geroy17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
1.85
Slivnishki geroy
0.88

FK Minyor Pernik creates 110% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 130 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
83%
FK Minyor Pernik or Slivnishki geroy
78%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
40%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
35%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
84%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
55%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
28%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
59%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
22%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
77%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.85

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
60%
level
22%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
17%

FK Minyor Pernik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: FK Minyor Pernik 5–1 Slivnishki geroy

FK Minyor Pernik beat Slivnishki geroy 5-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor in Pernik.