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Slivnishki geroy vs Botev Ihtiman — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
10/19/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 14Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Slivnishki geroy51%
×Draw25%
Botev Ihtiman24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
1.64
Botev Ihtiman
1.04

Slivnishki geroy creates 58% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 132 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Botev Ihtiman
0.98

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Botev Ihtiman
1.67

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Botev Ihtiman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
76%
Slivnishki geroy or Botev Ihtiman
75%
Draw or Botev Ihtiman
49%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
27%
Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
81%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
49%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
23%
Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
65%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
28%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
68%
Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
51%
level
25%
Botev Ihtiman scores more
24%

Slivnishki geroy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slivnishki geroy 3–0 Botev Ihtiman

Slivnishki geroy beat Botev Ihtiman 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.