Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Botev Ihtiman vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
2 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
5/10/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 33Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Botev Ihtiman46%
×Draw25%
Slivnishki geroy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.54
Slivnishki geroy
1.16

Botev Ihtiman creates 33% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
71%
Botev Ihtiman or Slivnishki geroy
75%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
54%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
23%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
79%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
45%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
20%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
69%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
32%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
62%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
46%
level
25%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
29%

Botev Ihtiman at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Botev Ihtiman 2–0 Slivnishki geroy

Botev Ihtiman beat Slivnishki geroy 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Ihtiman.